Why Delhi needs Shaikh Hasina | with or without
As Sheikh Hasina returns to power for a record fourth time in a row in an election marred by an Opposition boycott and allegations of highhandedness, why New Delhi needs her and will look the other way
As Sheikh Hasina begins her fifth term in power and fourth in a row, Bangladesh is on the cusp of history. Under Hasina and her Awami League, the country is set to make the big leap out of the group of least developed countries (LDCs) by 2026 and will share the table with developing countries India and China.
In an election boycotted by the main Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies, Hasina’s ruling Awami League won 222 seats out of 300; the Jatiya Party 11 seats; the Workers’ Party, Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal and Bangladesh Kalyan Party one seat each; and Independent candidates won 62 seats.
On Friday, Mahfuz Anam, editor and publisher of Bangladesh’s largest English daily, The Daily Star, pointed out in an incisive piece that there’s more to Hasina’s win than meets the eye. The seats won by the rebels, most of them “lifelong Awami-Leaguers”, the Jatiya Party and that of the two alliance partners, had the “blessings” of the Awami League.
“If we add the 50 reserved seats for women, by far the majority of which will go to the Awami League, Hasina can easily claim a tally of minimum 45 more, making for a total of 338 MPs in a House of 350. Can it then be termed as anything other than a one-party rule?,” wrote Anam, who has been at the receiving end of Hasina’s crackdown on dissent.
It’s a question whose echo has travelled far beyond the country’s borders — from neighbours India and China, to the US — as her government faces allegations of highhandedness and intolerance.
Yet, if New Delhi has held its nose to welcome her victory, it’s because Bangladesh’s history and geography is so intertwined with India’s.
India on her side
The assassination on August 15, 1975, of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, Hasina’s father and the founder of a modern, secular Bangladesh, shook the early foundations of a secular, Bengali identity.
After a coup, Lt Gen Zia-ur Rahman became the President and founded the BNP. Following his assassination in 1981, his wife Khaleda Zia took over the mantle of the party in 1982-83.
Khaleda and Hasina briefly came together to lead a popular uprising during the military rule of Gen H M Ershad, Zia-ur Rahman’s successor, forcing him to resign. In the elections that followed, Khaleda became the Prime Minister, while Hasina served as the Opposition leader, setting off what has been the staple of Bangladesh politics ever since — the Battle of the Begums.
Hasina’s first shot at power came in 1996, when she defeated Khaleda, and became the Prime Minister.
Many in Bangladesh and India feel that the 21 years from 1975 (when Sheikh Mujib was assassinated) to 1996 (when Hasina became PM), led to the strengthening of radical, Islamic and pro-Pakistan forces.
“It is quite ironic that after India helped Bangladesh win freedom in 1971, politically, it lost Bangladesh to Pakistani forces for about 21 years,” said an expert on India-Bangladesh ties, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Hasina lost in 2001, and during Khaleda’s term between 2001 and 2006, Islamist parties, especially the Jamaat-e-Islami, who were part of the coalition government, and anti-India terrorist and insurgent groups had a free run.
From India’s perspective, it was the toughest challenge it faced in the neighbourhood. So when Hasina came back to power in 2008, it was a strategic game-changer for India — a position that continues to determine India’s Bangladesh policy.
Prof Syed Munir Khasru, head of the Dhaka-headquartered think tank, The Institute for Policy, Advocacy, and Governance (IPAG), said, “As PM Hasina cracked down on the insurgent and terrorist groups, she found India on her side. For her, fighting extremism and radicalism was the sine qua non of her governance.”
The way forward
For now, Hasina’s emphatic victory may have paved the way for another five-year term, but many say it’s unlikely to be a smooth ride.
Analyst Ashikur Rahman said, “There has been legal continuity, but the divided and polarised polity remains. Also, this time, Hasina is politically strong but is inheriting a weaker economy, a fragile economy. For 13 years, we had tremendous growth. We had mega infrastructure coming up all over Bangladesh. But post COVID and post the Ukraine war, there are pressures on foreign exchange reserves and inflation and questions are raised on internal financial management of the banking sector.”
Besides, there are several likely scenarios and questions.
Prof. Khasru said, “For Dhaka, there are three main challenges in the foreseeable future as it battles international censure for the elections: Firstly, what happens, if the US and EU — who comprise 80 per cent of Bangladesh readymade garments market — impose sanctions? Secondly, like 2007, when the then ruling BNP tried to manipulate elections, if the UN threatened to cease Bangladesh’s participation in UN peacekeeping operations because of its human rights track record? Thirdly, what if the Western powers play hardball when it comes to development finance from leading international lending institutions?”
Given India’s stakes in Bangladesh, these are also questions that stare New Delhi in the face.
“Delhi’s engagement with Dhaka is a good example of India’s democratic realism: don’t let the ideal come in the way of the real. A more democratic Bangladesh would be desirable but at this point political and economic stability are paramount to keep the momentum, as bilateral relations are at their best in fifty years,” said Xavier.
India has also opened its wallet to Dhaka. Bangladesh has around USD 8 billion in three lines of credit under implementation, making it India’s largest development partner. Bangladesh received its first Line of Credit of US $1 billion in 2010, and further projects were implemented.
The next step
For the time being, Hasina’s resounding victory has paved the path for another five-year term, but many predict a bumpy road.
“There has been legal continuity,” said analyst Ashikur Rahman, “but the divided and polarised polity remains.” Furthermore, Hasina is politically powerful this time, but she inherits a weaker, more unstable economy. We had enormous growth over the course of 13 years. We had massive infrastructure being built all over Bangladesh. However, following COVID and the Ukraine war, there are pressures on foreign exchange reserves and inflation, and questions have been raised about the banking sector’s internal financial management.”
Furthermore, there are various possible scenarios and queries.
“For Dhaka, there are three major challenges in the foreseeable future as it battles international condemnation for the elections,” Prof. Khasru added. First, what happens if the United States and the European Union, which account for 80% of Bangladesh’s readymade garments market, apply sanctions? Second, like in 2007, when the then-ruling BNP attempted to manipulate elections, what if the UN threatened to withdraw Bangladesh from UN peacekeeping operations due to its human rights record? Third, what if the Western countries play hardball with prominent international financial institutions when it comes to development finance?”
Given India’s stakes in Bangladesh, these are also questions that must be addressed in New Delhi.
“Delhi’s engagement with Dhaka is an excellent example of democratic realism in India: don’t let the ideal get in the way of the real.” A more democratic Bangladesh would be preferable, but for the time being, political and economic stability are critical to maintaining momentum, since bilateral relations are at their highest in fifty years,” Xavier remarked
