Why is the BJD-BJP partnership logical | Vote Sharing 50%
During their 11-year alliance, the two parties controlled the state and received about half of the votes in the Lok Sabha or Assembly. Split was costly to the BJP, but as the Cong collapses, it has been gaining support.
Although the two have been major rivals in Odisha for some time, the BJD’s return to the BJP has taken some time to develop, as the state party has been cautious to maintain friendly relations with the ruling party at the center.
The strong bonds that BJD leader Naveen Patnaik has with Prime Minister Narendra Modi—who provided yet another example of it during his visit to Odisha on Tuesday—have been beneficial. The chief minister of Patnaik declared that Modi had established the path for India to become “an economic powerhouse,” even as he praised Patnaik as a “Lokpriya (popular)” chief minister and hinted that Odisha will be crucial to the BJP-led NDA’s goal of 400 or more seats in the Lok Sabha elections.
When it comes to issues that are important to the BJP’s agenda, the BJD has consistently voted with the government at the federal level. These issues include the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, GST, the ordinance on the powers that the Delhi government has over the federal government, the surgical strike, demonetisation, and the proposal for one nation, one election. Additionally, the BJD has consistently supported the government’s positions on these issues.
However, after the BJD once again assisted the BJP in electing Union minister Ashwini Vaishnaw to the Rajya Sabha in the most recent elections, rumors that an alliance was finally on the way gained new life.
Since the BJP is more focused on taking a record-breaking majority in the Centre, the alliance will benefit both parties. A partnership with the main opposition party, the BJP, would also assure the BJD’s smooth triumph as it seeks a sixth consecutive term in Odisha, according to a senior BJD leader.
How the BJD-BJP alliance performed? LS surveys
On December 26, 1997, supporters of the late, great Janata Dal leader and former chief minister of Odisha, Biju Patnaik, founded the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), a regional party, to carry on his legacy.
The Congress was the other powerful party in the state at the time, and the BJP was having difficulty building a basis in Odisha. As a result, the BJP leadership—including L K Advani and Atal Bihari Vajpayee—sought out and established links with the BJD.
In 1998, the two parties collaborated to fight their first Lok Sabha elections. The BJP ran for nine seats and won seven, while the BJD competed for twelve and won nine. Together, their vote share was 48.7%, with the BJP receiving 21.2% and the BJD receiving 27.5%.
With its vote share plunging to 4.9%, the Janata Dal, which contested 16 seats, was unable to establish any momentum.
At the center, a short-lived BJP government under Vajpayee took office.
Using the same seat-sharing mechanism, the BJD and BJP won Odisha in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, taking 19 of the 21 available seats and a vote share of 57.6%. With 33% of the vote, the BJD won 10 seats; with 24.6% of the vote, the BJP won 9.
In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, the BJD-BJP combination continued to deliver results, even though the UPA took center stage. With a combined vote share of 49.3%, the combination won 18 of Odisha’s 21 seats. This time, the BJP won seven seats with a 19.3% vote share, and the BJD won eleven with 30% of the vote.
How the BJD-BJP alliance performed? The two parties fought an Assembly election together for the first time in the 2000 Assembly polls, when Naveen Patnaik was elected chief minister. The BJP fought 63 seats and won 38 (18.2% votes), whereas the BJD fought in 84 seats and won 68 (29.4% vote share). The BJD and BJP’s combined vote share of 47.6% greatly exceeded the Congress’s total of 33.8% votes and 26 seats.
How the BJP and BJD have become closer
The BJP has been attempting to strengthen its ties to the BJD since 2019, as Patnaik ages and lacks a secondary position within the party. In order to keep its influence in the state, the regional party has also determined that it is wise to keep cordial relations with the Center, voting alongside it or offering support on important issues.
Even though the BJP lacked the necessary number of members, the BJD assisted it in getting its IAS-turned-leader Ashwini Vaishnaw elected to the Rajya Sabha in June 2019.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah praised Patnaik as a “popular CM” and his efforts to combat the “Maoist menace” and manage disasters during a visit to Odisha last year. After a month, Patnaik rated PM Modi’s foreign policy and anti-corruption initiatives a “8/10.”
The PM refers to Patnaik as “my friend” a lot.
Did the BJD and BJP split benefit the Congress?
When the two parties originally teamed up in 1998, the Congress received 41% of the vote but only 5 Lok Sabha seats. With 36.9% of the vote, its total dropped even lower to 2 seats in 1999.
Despite the party winning control at the Center, the Congress did not outperform it in 1999 in terms of votes or seats in 2004.
The Congress has also failed to regain control of the Assembly since the BJD-BJP coalition initially defeated it in the 2000 elections. With a 33.8% vote share, it gained 26 seats in 2000. With a 34.4% vote share, it won 38 seats out of 128 seats it ran for in 2004 while allied with the Left.
With just one Lok Sabha seat and nine Assembly seats in 2019, it was further driven to the brink and lost to the BJP.
